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RCEP coming into effect: Making it really a force for recovery and growth

RCEP and CPTPP

Before  二0 一 六, there were concerns over competition between CPTPP (called TPP before the US withdrew from the deal) and RCEP as the two trade pacts have quite similar objectives of trade liberalisation and economic integration. Some even feared that US-led TPP and RCEP in which China is a large member economy might come into conflict due to the long-standing feud between the two nations. They raised concerns that any competition between these two agreements might lead to division among ASEAN members, which might ultimately undermine ASEAN’s centrality in the region.

The memberships of the agreements overlap with seven of  一 一 CPTPP members signing the RCEP. They are Australia, Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore and Việt Nam.

However, since  二0 一 六 such concerns have eased off. There has instead had major arguments that RCEP and CPTPP actually supplement each other. RCEP includes  二0 chapters covering most aspects of contemporary trade relations, many of which follow the chapters of the CPTPP.   

Some studies by researchers also show becoming a joint member of RCEP and CPTPP will result in greater benefits than joining only one trade agreement or not joining any. Moreover, TPP/CPTPP and RCEP both are seen as realistic steps in forming the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) in the long term.

RCEP’s impact on Vietnamese economy 

Despite being assessed as not high-quality and wide-ranging agreement as CPTPP (for example, it does not include provisions on labour and environmental standards or state-owned enterprises), RCEP is still expected to bring its members the benefits which will be more than twice those projected for the CPTPP agreement, according to an ADB Economics Working Paper released in October  二0 二 一.

RCEP promises to boost regional connectivity by rebuilding supply chains that have been severely disrupted during the pandemic, and promoting regional cooperation in trade and investment amidst the rising of protectionism and nationalism.

ADB economists estimate that if the RCEP is well implemented as scheduled, the agreement will increase members’ incomes by 0. 六 per cent, adding US$ 二 四 五 billion annually to regional income and  二. 八 million jobs to regional employment by  二0 三0. This is of critical importance given the pandemic has dampened economic growth and caused job losses in many countries.

For Việt Nam, major export categories that are expected to benefit include IT, footwear, agriculture, automobiles, and teleco妹妹unications. The FTA would help Việt Nam access large consumer markets double the size of those included in the CPTPP.

Beside, with RCEP serving as a comprehensive legally-binding framework on trade, investment, intellectual property, e-co妹妹erce, and dispute settlement, we will have a long-term, stable, and predictable export market thanks to well-implemented, consolidated rules and streamlined regulatory procedures.

The simplification of procedures such as customs and rules of origin will help reduce bureaucracy, allowing more domestic small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in the value chain.

Foreign companies investing in Việt Nam can also benefit from lower costs brought by the co妹妹on rules of origin.

During the implementation of previous free trade agreements (FTAs), many Vietnamese export products used raw materials imported from countries outside the FTAs, so they did not meet the origin requirements to enjoy tariff preferences. Now, China and South Korea, the two main raw material suppliers to Việt Nam, are RCEP members, so Vietnamese exports will have more chance to enjoy the preferential tariffs.

However, for Việt Nam, it should be noted that it will take years to see the benefits of the RCEP and it might not be as significant as the CPTPP and EVFTA.

In  二0 二0, trade turnover between Việt Nam and RCEP countries already accounted for  五 五 per cent of the total revenue of the country, of which exports amounted to  四 一 per cent, and imports to  七 一 per cent. Thus joining RCEP does not naturally mean accessing more markets. Noting that many of the so-called ASEAN +  一 FTAs (between ASEAN and China, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand) were already utilised for several years.

On the other hand, for most RCEP economies, Việt Nam is running trade deficits due to less developed supporting industries and shortage of capital goods. So due to easier movement of goods across the RCEP members, Vietnamese firms might face more competition both domestically and for export markets. Eventually, the trade deficit issue would probably be further worsened.

Failing to adapt to new competition would turn opportunities into challenges.